Starbase Louisiana: estimated development timeline

Construction from 2027 and a first launch targeted 2029 are the only public dates. Here are the phases in between, when each is likely to land, and which trades get bought in each.

Checked 29 August 2026

Two dates are public: construction from 2027, and a first launch targeted as soon as 2029. Everything between them is unannounced. This page lays out the phases a build like this runs through, roughly when each one lands, and which trades get bought in each, so you know whether your window is next year or 2030.

Read this carefully. The announced dates are sourced at the bottom of this page and on the project page. The phase order and the windows are Bizer's estimate, built from what was announced and from how coastal industrial projects of this size actually sequence. Nobody outside SpaceX has a schedule, and anyone selling you one does not have it either.

What is actually announced

Short list, because it is a short list.

Note what is missing: no phase plan, no package breakdown, no named prime contractor, no supplier portal. That is normal this early, and it is also why the timeline below is an estimate rather than a schedule.

The phases, and what each one buys

Each heading says whether its window is announced, meaning stated by SpaceX or the State of Louisiana on 25 August 2026 and sourced at the bottom of this page, or a Bizer estimate, meaning our read of the ordinary sequence for a coastal industrial build of this size. An estimate is not from SpaceX, and it is not a schedule.

Now to groundbreaking, Bizer estimate

Permits, surveys and the paperwork nobody photographs. Before a machine moves, the project has to clear federal wetlands review, an FAA process for a launch site, and Louisiana environmental permitting. Reporting points at the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality, the FAA and the Army Corps of Engineers, with dockets expected to open in 2027.

This phase is quiet and it is where the schedule is really decided. It also buys real work: somebody has to survey 125,000 acres of marsh, drill it, and document what lives on it.

Buys: boundary and topographic survey, wetland delineation, geotechnical drilling, environmental consulting, aerial and LiDAR, boat and airboat support, cultural resources survey.

2027, on the announced plan

Access, fill and laydown. Pecan Island sits on a chenier, a shell ridge in marsh, reached by Louisiana Highway 82. Nothing heavy gets built until there is a way in, ground firm enough to carry it, and somewhere to stage it.

Expect this to be the longest and least glamorous phase, and the one with the most local content. Fill, haul roads, canal and dock access, laydown yards, and the highway work that lets an oversize load reach the site at all.

Buys: site work and earthmoving, aggregate hauling, marine and barge, dredging, pile driving, trucking and oversize, traffic control, equipment rental.

2027 to 2029, Bizer estimate

Power, water and somewhere to sleep. The announcement names power generation and residential housing for employees as part of the campus. In a parish with almost no rooms, the workforce has to be housed and fed before it can be large.

Camp infrastructure usually runs in parallel with earthwork rather than after it, which is why a catering or lodging business should not think of itself as late cycle here.

Buys: electrical and instrumentation, mechanical and piping, camp catering and lodging, water and wastewater, bulk fuel, security and gate control, safety and medical, waste handling.

2028 to 2029, Bizer estimate

First launch complex and vehicle processing. The announced buildout is five launch complexes with two pads each, plus propellant farms and vehicle processing. A first launch in 2029 means one complex, not ten.

This is the concrete and steel phase: deep foundations in soft ground, flame trench and deluge works, tower steel, and the high spec welding that goes with cryogenic service.

Buys: concrete and formwork, structural steel, welding and fabrication, cranes and rigging, industrial coatings, scaffolding, instrumentation and controls, nondestructive testing.

2028 into the 2030s, Bizer estimate

Propellant production, deep water and an airport. SpaceX describes a self sustaining spaceport: propellant production on site, deep water shipping, and an airport. Each is an industrial project in its own right, and they run long after the first launch rather than before it.

Deep water access in this location means dredging and marine construction on a scale that carries its own federal permits, which is one reason it is unlikely to gate the first flight.

Buys: cryogenic and process piping, tank erection, marine construction, dredging, paving and airfield, high voltage, heavy civil.

2029 target, announced

First Starship launch. The announced target is a first launch as soon as 2029. Treat "as soon as" as doing real work in that sentence.

A launch does not end the buying. An operating spaceport is a permanent industrial customer: maintenance, logistics, inspection, catering, waste, security, and the ordinary services a workforce of thousands needs every day in a place that currently has none of them.

Buys: operations and maintenance, logistics and warehousing, inspection and testing, facilities services, hospitality, fleet and fuel.

2030s, Bizer estimate

Buildout to ten pads. Five complexes with two pads each is the announced end state, and Elon Musk has separately spoken of more than a dozen towers. That is ambition rather than a documented plan, and the two are worth keeping apart.

For a supplier the useful read is that the work does not arrive as one contract in 2027. It arrives as a decade of packages, and the firms in the second decade will mostly be the ones who were already known in the first.

Buys: repeat civil packages, steel and fabrication, electrical, specialty industrial.

Against the only precedent

Boca Chica, Texas is the only comparison that exists, and it is worth putting the numbers side by side rather than describing them.

That gap is the single most important thing on this page, and it cuts both ways.

Why Louisiana could genuinely be faster. Boca Chica was inventing the vehicle while building the site. Starship exists now and has flown. Louisiana is building a launch site for a known rocket, with a decade of hard won knowledge about what a pad, a flame trench and a deluge system actually need. SpaceX also builds faster than almost anyone, and the site is enormous, so many crews can work at once without tripping over each other.

Why two years is still very aggressive. Boca Chica is a few hundred acres on firm ground with road access. This is 125,000 acres of subsiding coastal marsh, ten miles from open water, on one highway, in hurricane country, needing federal wetlands permits over an area reporting describes as more than 200 square miles. Ground has to be made before anything can be built on it.

Our honest read: 2027 for first earthmoving is plausible if permitting goes smoothly, and a 2029 launch would be remarkable. A first launch in the early 2030s would still make this the fastest large spaceport build in American history. Neither outcome changes what a contractor should do this year.

How to tell whether it is on track

You do not need inside information. Large projects announce themselves through public filings long before they announce themselves through announcements. What to watch, in rough order of appearance:

  1. Army Corps of Engineers public notice. A Section 404 wetlands permit application becomes a public notice with a comment period. The clearest public signal the design is real and specific.
  2. FAA activity for the site. A launch site involves the FAA, and its environmental and licensing steps are public. Reporting points to dockets opening in 2027.
  3. Louisiana DEQ permit applications. Air and water permits for propellant production and power generation are filed with the state and are public.
  4. DOTD work on Louisiana Highway 82. Highway and bridge lettings are published, and access has to be solved before heavy delivery, so this moves early.
  5. A named prime or program manager. The moment an engineering and construction firm is announced, your target changes from SpaceX to that firm's supply chain.
  6. Survey and geotech crews on the ground. The least formal indicator and often the earliest. People in Vermilion Parish will see this before anyone reports it.

What it means for you

The timeline above has one practical use: knowing whether to move this year or watch for two.

Qualification happens before procurement, and the work does not arrive as one contract in 2027. It arrives as a decade of packages.

One thing not to do. Do not buy equipment, sign a lease or hire against this timeline. Nothing is built, no scope has been published, and no contract has been let. Qualification is cheap and useful whatever happens. Capacity bought on the strength of a press release is neither.

Sources and dates

Bizer
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